Diesel will continue to dominate trucking to 2040 says IHS Markit
Among heavy trucks, electric vehicle says will still account for less than 5% of the market in 2040 according to forecasts from IHS Markit
Diesel will still remain the dominant for fuel for the world’s truck fleets in 2040 says the forecast, with alternatives gaining traction most in medium truck fleets but for heavy fleets diesel will still account more than 80% of sales.
“Advancements in the diesel engine allow it to remain cost competitive to new technologies to 2040, but share will decrease over time,” says the analysis.
It projects that the major stumbling block for the adoption of electric truck, that of batteries’ cost and weight, will only start to be addressed by around 2030.
This scenario is going to be driven by the market dynamics in China, where sales are expected to be highest out of the regions addressed.
The analysis notes that adoption of gas fuel alternatives, both clean and natural, will come into play and expects the sales for these combined fuel types to exceed electric vehicles in their 2040 scenario.
“CNG/LNG is the top competitor to diesel for share of new sales due to readiness in China and the United States. Fuel cell captures a limited share of long-haul sales, but remains a decent alternative to diesel, with its competitive range and charge time,” says the report.
Leading this will be the US market, where availability of natural gas is high, whereas they expect the European and Japanese markets to be more focused on battery and hybrid electric vehicles.
The report is also relatively conservative when it comes to autonomous vehicle adoption and deployment. It says that “autonomous vehicles will penetrate the vehicle parc with 300,000 vehicles in the fleet by 2040”.